Kocaelispor 1-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kocaelispor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu plays host to Kocaelispor versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kocaelispor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kocaelispor are significantly better at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Kocaelispor's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kocaelispor 1W, Konyaspor 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Kocaelispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kocaelispor — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 36% versus Konyaspor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 28% | Konyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.32 xG and Konyaspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.812 / defence 0.833 | Konyaspor attack 0.800 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.229. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Kocaelispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Kocaelispor games / 61 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 45% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Konyaspor 5.26. Kocaelispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kocaelispor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kocaelispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kocaelispor 20% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 45% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Kocaelispor 1.32 / Konyaspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.812 / def 0.833 | Konyaspor attack 0.800 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Kocaelispor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Konyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor?
Kocaelispor 1 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Kocaelispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kocaelispor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kocaelispor 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Kocaelispor and Konyaspor in?
Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kocaelispor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.80x) against Kocaelispor's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kocaelispor Win
45%
2.25
36%
2.77
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
2.14
0.82
Konyaspor xG
2.25
45%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 0.82 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kocaelispor come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 6D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Kocaelispor against 0.96 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kocaelispor's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Kocaelispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kocaelispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 68%.
Defensively: Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kocaelispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kocaelispor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.75 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kocaelispor
0
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Konyaspor?
From 3 meetings on record, Kocaelispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Konyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Konyaspor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 33%, Konyaspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kocaelispor) and 58% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kocaelispor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 75% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 58% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kocaelispor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kocaelispor have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kocaelispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kocaelispor 1-2 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.32 xG and Konyaspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Konyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 45% | Draw 36% | Konyaspor 19%, with Kocaelispor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 28%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.32 PPG, Konyaspor 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.