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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kocaelispor take on Göztepe.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kocaelispor welcome Göztepe to Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kocaelispor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaelispor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Göztepe — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kocaelispor 1.10 PPG, Göztepe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kocaelispor, 0 for Göztepe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Göztepe in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 38% versus Göztepe 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 31% | Göztepe 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.718 / defence 0.859 | Göztepe attack 0.922 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.208. Kocaelispor's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Kocaelispor games / 65 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Göztepe 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Kocaelispor 30% | Göztepe 40% BTTS from recent games.

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