Kocaelispor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kocaelispor take on Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kocaelispor welcome Göztepe to Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kocaelispor have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kocaelispor have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Göztepe — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kocaelispor 1.10 PPG, Göztepe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Kocaelispor have won 0, Göztepe 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Kocaelispor 0–0 Göztepe — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 38% versus Göztepe 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 31% | Göztepe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.718 / defence 0.859 | Göztepe attack 0.922 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.208. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Kocaelispor's last 29 games and Göztepe's last 65.
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.51 | Draw 2.58 | Göztepe 3.06. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kocaelispor's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kocaelispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Kocaelispor 0.88 / Göztepe 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.718 / def 0.859 | Göztepe attack 0.922 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Göztepe xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Kocaelispor vs Göztepe kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Kocaelispor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Göztepe part of?
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 29% chance of winning, Göztepe a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kocaelispor and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Kocaelispor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kocaelispor's attack at 0.72x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Kocaelispor's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kocaelispor's last 29 games and Göztepe's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
39%
2.58
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
1.83
0.96
Göztepe xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kocaelispor vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 0.96 for Göztepe, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Kocaelispor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 8D 12L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 12W 11D 6L from 29 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kocaelispor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kocaelispor have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 14 home games (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 6W 4D 4L from their last 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.24 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
Kocaelispor (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kocaelispor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Kocaelispor vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Kocaelispor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 12W 11D 6L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Göztepe away?
Kocaelispor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.57 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Göztepe in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Kocaelispor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Kocaelispor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Kocaelispor vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Göztepe?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kocaelispor have won 0, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kocaelispor 1-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 36%, Göztepe 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Kocaelispor and 36% for Göztepe.
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Göztepe in 50%; Kocaelispor have failed to score in 29% of games; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kocaelispor and Göztepe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 36% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kocaelispor and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 36% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 31%, Göztepe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.