Kocaelispor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kocaelispor take on Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kocaelispor welcome Göztepe to Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kocaelispor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaelispor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kocaelispor 1.10 PPG, Göztepe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kocaelispor, 0 for Göztepe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 38% versus Göztepe 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 31% | Göztepe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.718 / defence 0.859 | Göztepe attack 0.922 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.208. Kocaelispor's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Kocaelispor games / 65 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Göztepe 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Kocaelispor 30% | Göztepe 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Kocaelispor 0.88 / Göztepe 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.718 / def 0.859 | Göztepe attack 0.922 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Göztepe xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kocaelispor vs Göztepe kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Kocaelispor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Göztepe part of?
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 29% chance of winning, Göztepe a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kocaelispor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Kocaelispor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Kocaelispor 0W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Kocaelispor and Göztepe in?
Kocaelispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kocaelispor's attack at 0.72x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Kocaelispor's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
39%
2.58
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
1.83
0.96
Göztepe xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 0.96 for Göztepe, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Kocaelispor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 8D 12L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 12W 11D 6L from 29 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kocaelispor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kocaelispor have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.24 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kocaelispor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 12W 11D 6L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Göztepe away?
Kocaelispor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.57 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Göztepe in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kocaelispor
2
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Göztepe?
From 2 meetings on record, Kocaelispor have won 0, Göztepe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Kocaelispor 1-1 Göztepe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 36%, Göztepe 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Kocaelispor and 36% for Göztepe.
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Göztepe in 50%; Kocaelispor have failed to score in 29% of games; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kocaelispor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 36% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kocaelispor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 36% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 31%, Göztepe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.