Kocaelispor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu plays host to Kocaelispor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kocaelispor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Kocaelispor have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 0.80 PPG clear of Kocaelispor over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Kocaelispor 1–3 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kocaelispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 42% versus Fenerbahçe 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kocaelispor 26% | Fenerbahçe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.821 / defence 0.845 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.539 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.291. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.539, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Kocaelispor's last 19 games and Fenerbahçe's last 55.
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 19% | Draw 31% | Fenerbahçe 50%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 5.31 | Draw 3.21 | Fenerbahçe 2.00. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kocaelispor 40% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 19% | Draw 31% | Fenerbahçe 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Kocaelispor 0.99 / Fenerbahçe 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.821 / def 0.845 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.539 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 2 February 2026 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Kocaelispor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 19% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kocaelispor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.54x) against Kocaelispor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Kocaelispor's last 19 games and Fenerbahçe's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
19%
5.31
31%
3.21
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.68
Fenerbahçe xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
4%
28.48
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 1.68 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kocaelispor's recent record stands at 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 0L across 19 games — 2.26 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kocaelispor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kocaelispor have managed 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Kocaelispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 away games, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.26 scored and 0.89 conceded. Fenerbahçe's attacking output running into Kocaelispor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 63%.
Defensively: Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kocaelispor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kocaelispor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 12W 7D 0L in their last 19 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.80 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kocaelispor
0
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kocaelispor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Kocaelispor 0-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 40%, Fenerbahçe 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Kocaelispor) and 60% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 60% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 60% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 70% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kocaelispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kocaelispor 0-2 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.68 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kocaelispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 19% | Draw 31% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 26%, Fenerbahçe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.