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Poisson model rates Kocaelispor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu plays host to Kocaelispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Kocaelispor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Kocaelispor's home record at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kocaelispor are significantly better at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fatih Karagümrük are 0.50 PPG clear of Kocaelispor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kocaelispor 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 41% versus Fatih Karagümrük 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.24 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.707 / defence 0.923 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.664 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Kocaelispor's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Kocaelispor games / 32 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 46% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 2.17 | Draw 2.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.88. Kocaelispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kocaelispor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kocaelispor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kocaelispor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.

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