Kocaelispor 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kocaelispor at 46%, yet in-form Fatih Karagümrük provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu plays host to Kocaelispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Kocaelispor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Kocaelispor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kocaelispor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fatih Karagümrük are 0.50 PPG clear of Kocaelispor over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Kocaelispor, 0 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Kocaelispor 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 41% versus Fatih Karagümrük 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.24 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.707 / defence 0.923 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.664 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Kocaelispor's last 32 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 32.

Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 46% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 2.17 | Draw 2.69 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.97. Kocaelispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kocaelispor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kocaelispor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kocaelispor's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kocaelispor 40% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).

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