Kocaelispor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kocaelispor host Başakşehir at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kocaelispor — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Kocaelispor have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kocaelispor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kocaelispor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Kocaelispor 0–1 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kocaelispor in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 37% versus Başakşehir 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kocaelispor 33% | Başakşehir 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.00 xG and Başakşehir 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.789 / defence 0.971 | Başakşehir attack 1.200 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.146. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Kocaelispor's last 27 games and Başakşehir's last 63.
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 25% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.94 | Draw 3.06 | Başakşehir 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kocaelispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 25% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kocaelispor 1.00 / Başakşehir 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.789 / def 0.971 | Başakşehir attack 1.200 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir?
Kocaelispor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir part of?
Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 25% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kocaelispor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kocaelispor's attack rating (0.79) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Kocaelispor's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kocaelispor's last 27 games and Başakşehir's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
25%
3.94
33%
3.06
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.33
Başakşehir xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.96
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 1.33 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Kocaelispor have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 9W 6D 12L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kocaelispor on 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kocaelispor have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 13 home games (6W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Kocaelispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 7W 1D 5L from their last 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Kocaelispor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kocaelispor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Kocaelispor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.62 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Kocaelispor
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Başakşehir?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kocaelispor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Başakşehir 2-0 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 38%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Kocaelispor) and 69% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Başakşehir in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kocaelispor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kocaelispor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 69% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kocaelispor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 62% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kocaelispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.00 xG and Başakşehir 1.33 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kocaelispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Başakşehir attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 25% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 33%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.