Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kocaelispor at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kocaelispor welcome Alanyaspor to Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kocaelispor stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kocaelispor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Alanyaspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Kocaelispor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kocaelispor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2026, ended Kocaelispor 2–1 Alanyaspor — a Kocaelispor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kocaelispor trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 38% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kocaelispor 29% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.785 / defence 0.687 | Alanyaspor attack 0.715 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.57. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kocaelispor's projected output up. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Kocaelispor have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Alanyaspor's projected output down. Data: built from Kocaelispor's last 45 games and Alanyaspor's last 45.
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 60% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 1.68 | Draw 3.98 | Alanyaspor 6.58. The model has a clear lean to Kocaelispor (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kocaelispor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kocaelispor's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kocaelispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 60% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Kocaelispor 1.57 / Alanyaspor 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.785 / def 0.687 | Alanyaspor attack 0.715 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Kocaelispor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Alanyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 60% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kocaelispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kocaelispor's attack at 0.79x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Kocaelispor's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kocaelispor's last 45 games and Alanyaspor's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kocaelispor Win
60%
1.68
25%
3.98
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
2.21
0.65
Alanyaspor xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
3%
31.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 0.65 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kocaelispor's recent record stands at 15W 11D 19L from 45 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 19D 16L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kocaelispor on 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kocaelispor have managed 9W 6D 7L from their last 22 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 3W 12D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kocaelispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kocaelispor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kocaelispor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 16L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kocaelispor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2026, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kocaelispor
0
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kocaelispor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 32%, Alanyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Kocaelispor) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kocaelispor have failed to score in 32% of games; Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 68% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kocaelispor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 68% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.