Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kayserispor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at Kadir Has Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 9 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kayserispor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Trabzonspor have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Kayserispor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Kayserispor 0–4 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 48% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.788 / defence 1.291 | Trabzonspor attack 1.385 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.227. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.385, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 60 games and Trabzonspor's last 60.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 14% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 61%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 7.12 | Draw 4.01 | Trabzonspor 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.03 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 14% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Kayserispor 1.03 / Trabzonspor 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.788 / def 1.291 | Trabzonspor attack 1.385 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Trabzonspor xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 9 March 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 14% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.79x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 60 games and Trabzonspor's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
14%
7.12
25%
4.01
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.23
2.19
Trabzonspor xG
7.12
14%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
11%
8.96
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
2%
63.83
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kayserispor and 2.19 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 14W 23D 23L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 14L across 60 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 10W 8D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.77 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 23D 23L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 28W 18D 14L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.31 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 4-0 Kayserispor.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kayserispor) and 55% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 31%; Kayserispor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Kayserispor's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Kayserispor's matches and 55% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 69% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 2.19 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Trabzonspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 14% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 61%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.