Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Konyaspor (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kayserispor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Konyaspor meet at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Konyaspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Konyaspor away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Konyaspor, who have 4 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Konyaspor — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 49% versus Konyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Konyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.738 / defence 1.237 | Konyaspor attack 1.121 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.133. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 69 games and Konyaspor's last 69.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 27% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.72 | Draw 3.25 | Konyaspor 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 34 | Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 27% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Kayserispor 1.23 / Konyaspor 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.738 / def 1.237 | Konyaspor attack 1.121 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 34) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 27% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kayserispor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.74) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.12x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 69 games and Konyaspor's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
27%
3.72
31%
3.25
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.57
Konyaspor xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.57 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor come into this having played 69 games, going 16W 24D 29L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 69 outings (23W 17D 29L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.25 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kayserispor's home form reads 12W 9D 13L across their last 34 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 34 away games (8W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 62%.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 16W 24D 29L in their last 69 games (1.04 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 23W 17D 29L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.32 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
4
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 47%, Konyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kayserispor) and 56% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Kayserispor's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kayserispor's matches and 56% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 76% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.57 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against Konyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 27% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 42%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.