Kayserispor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Konyaspor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Kayserispor, 1.00 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Konyaspor, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 52% | Konyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.729 / defence 1.275 | Konyaspor attack 0.787 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.250. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Kayserispor games / 59 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 50% | Konyaspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Kayserispor 1.14 / Konyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.729 / def 1.275 | Konyaspor attack 0.787 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kayserispor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 4W.
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.73) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.79x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.25
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.25
Konyaspor xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.25 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 20D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 58 outings (15W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.10 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kayserispor's home form reads 7W 12D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (6W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.14 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
4
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 55%, Konyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kayserispor) and 41% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 31% of games; Konyaspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 52% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kayserispor's recent games and 41% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.14 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.73 / defence 1.27 against Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 32% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 37%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 52%, Konyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.07 PPG, Konyaspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.