Kayserispor 1-2 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kayserispor take on Kocaelispor.

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Analysis

Kocaelispor make the trip to Kadir Has Stadium to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Monday 9 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Kayserispor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Kayserispor have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Kocaelispor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.30 for Kocaelispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Kayserispor, 0 for Kocaelispor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Kocaelispor — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Kocaelispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Kocaelispor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kayserispor 50% | Kocaelispor 25%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.00 xG and Kocaelispor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.771 / defence 1.303 | Kocaelispor attack 0.662 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.308. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kocaelispor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 56 games and Kocaelispor's last 20.

Result probabilities: Kayserispor 28% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 34%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.59 | Draw 2.65 | Kocaelispor 2.91. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kocaelispor 44% (last 9 away games).

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