Kayserispor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fatih Karagümrük — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kayserispor at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have the stronger record — 4 wins to Kayserispor's 1, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2024, ended Kayserispor 1–4 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fatih Karagümrük win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Fatih Karagümrük 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.40 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.809 / defence 1.096 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.734 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 70 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 70.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 45% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.24 | Draw 3.29 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.01. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 45% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kayserispor 1.40 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.809 / def 1.096 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.734 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fatih Karagümrük xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kayserispor 2 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 45% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.73x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 70 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.29
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.99 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 26W 15D 29L from 70 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 27L across 70 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.24 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 15W 8D 12L from their last 35 home games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 8W 10D 17L across their last 35 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.66 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 60%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 26W 15D 29L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 22W 21D 27L in their last 70 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.51 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Kayserispor on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
4
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 49%, Fatih Karagümrük 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Kayserispor) and 57% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Kayserispor's recent games and 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 79% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 2-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.40 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 45% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.33 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.