Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fatih Karagümrük — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Stadium plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kayserispor at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have the stronger record — 4 wins to Kayserispor's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Kayserispor 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.781 / defence 1.368 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.822 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.194. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kayserispor's projected output up. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.368 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 62 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 26.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.67 | Draw 3.22 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.781 / def 1.368 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.822 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fatih Karagümrük xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 37% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.82x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 62 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.22
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.34 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 3W 11D 12L from 26 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 17L across 26 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Kayserispor against 0.65 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 3D 7L from their last 12 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across their last 12 away games, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.92 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 3W 11D 12L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kayserispor's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 0.75 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Kayserispor on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
4
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kayserispor and 67% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kayserispor's games and 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kayserispor's matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.82 / defence 1.40, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 0.77 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.