Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Kayserispor take on Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kayserispor stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Eyüpspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Eyüpspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kayserispor) versus 1.00 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Kayserispor have won 0, Eyüpspor 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Eyüpspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 48% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.750 / defence 1.278 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 67 games and Eyüpspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.03 | Draw 2.91 | Eyüpspor 3.06. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 30% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Kayserispor 1.21 / Eyüpspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.750 / def 1.278 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 33% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kayserispor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.75x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 67 games and Eyüpspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.91
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.20 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 23D 28L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.21 PPG from 67 outings (22W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.06 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kayserispor's home form reads 12W 8D 13L across their last 33 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 8D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 16W 23D 28L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 22W 15D 30L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.33 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
4
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kayserispor) and 46% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 30% of games; Eyüpspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Kayserispor's recent games and 46% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 61% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, as Kayserispor and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.06 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.