Kayserispor 2-2 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 37%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Eyüpspor travel to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Eyüpspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 75% and Eyüpspor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 75% | Eyüpspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.926 / defence 1.136 | Eyüpspor attack 0.839 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.289. Data: 40 Kayserispor games / 4 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Eyüpspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 70% | Eyüpspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Kayserispor 1.25 / Eyüpspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.926 / def 1.136 | Eyüpspor attack 0.839 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 2 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 37% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kayserispor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.55
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.23 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kayserispor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
4
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 75%, Eyüpspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Kayserispor) and 25% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kayserispor's games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Kayserispor's recent games and 25% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, as Kayserispor and Eyüpspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 35%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 75%, Eyüpspor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.