Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kayserispor take on Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Stadium plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 10:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kayserispor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Kayserispor, 1.00 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Kayserispor edge it 3 wins to 2, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Antalyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 0.88 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.746 / defence 1.372 | Antalyaspor attack 0.644 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.300. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.644 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Antalyaspor's last 58.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 24% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 4.16 | Draw 2.62 | Antalyaspor 2.64. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 24% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Kayserispor 0.88 / Antalyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.746 / def 1.372 | Antalyaspor attack 0.644 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 24% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 38% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.75) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.64x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Antalyaspor's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.16
38%
2.62
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.03
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.15 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 22D 23L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (18W 13D 27L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.16 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 13W 22D 23L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.25 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 4-0 Kayserispor on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Antalyaspor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kayserispor) and 43% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 32% of games; Antalyaspor in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 39% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Kayserispor's recent games and 43% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 68% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 0.88 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.37 against Antalyaspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 24% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 38%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.05 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.