Kayserispor 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Kayserispor, 1.70 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Antalyaspor in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Antalyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Antalyaspor 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.024 / defence 0.839 | Antalyaspor attack 0.653 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.219. Data: 70 Kayserispor games / 70 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Antalyaspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 30% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 42% | xG Kayserispor 1.92 / Antalyaspor 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.024 / def 0.839 | Antalyaspor attack 0.653 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Antalyaspor xG
42%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 May 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 67% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 3 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.02) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.65x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.83
12%
8.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.67
Antalyaspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.27
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
2%
56.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.67 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 70 games, going 21W 23D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 70 outings (24W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.31 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 13W 12D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.77 points per game from 35 outings (6W 9D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 21W 23D 26L in their last 70 games (1.23 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.46 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 51%, Antalyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Kayserispor) and 51% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Antalyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Kayserispor's recent games and 51% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.92 xG and Antalyaspor 0.67 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Antalyaspor attack 0.65 / defence 1.18, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 67% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 12%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.23 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.