Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.80 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 4 for Trabzonspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 53% and Trabzonspor 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.28 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.892 / defence 0.920 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.184. Data: 34 Kasımpaşa games / 34 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 20% | Trabzonspor 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.28 / Trabzonspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.892 / def 0.920 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Record (9 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 3 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.13x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.22
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.51
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.23 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 11D 15L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. Kasımpaşa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Trabzonspor's form line: 20W 9D 5L from 34 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. Trabzonspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 3D 3L from 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Pre-Season
Trabzonspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.24 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 41%, Trabzonspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Kasımpaşa) and 65% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Kasımpaşa's games and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 65% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.28 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 33%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 44%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.