Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Samsunspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Samsunspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Samsunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Samsunspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.749 / defence 0.982 | Samsunspor attack 1.073 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.308. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Kasımpaşa games / 47 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 2.04. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Samsunspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Kasımpaşa 0.86 / Samsunspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.749 / def 0.982 | Samsunspor attack 1.073 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Samsunspor xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 4 Samsunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 23% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.75) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
23%
4.30
28%
3.56
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.24
1.38
Samsunspor xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.38 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 13D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.32 PPG from 47 outings (17W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.43 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.35 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 61%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kasımpaşa) and 44% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 30% of games; Samsunspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Kasımpaşa's games and 52% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 44% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 23% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 49%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Samsunspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.43 PPG, Samsunspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.