Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Eyüpspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.40 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kasımpaşa lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 55% versus Eyüpspor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 42% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.56 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.916 / defence 1.019 | Eyüpspor attack 0.740 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Kasımpaşa games / 38 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 40% | Eyüpspor 50% BTTS from recent games.

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