Kasımpaşa 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 66% and Beşiktaş 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 66% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / defence 1.362 | Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.203. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Kasımpaşa games / 65 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.50 / Beşiktaş 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / def 1.362 | Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 35% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.24) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.18
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.66 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 19D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.58 PPG from 65 outings (29W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 29W 16D 20L in their last 65 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.45 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Beşiktaş 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Kasımpaşa) and 45% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 45% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, as Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.36 against Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.