Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Kasımpaşa's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kasımpaşa and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 56% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.64 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Kasımpaşa games / 43 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 52% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 52% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.64 / Alanyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 52% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 7W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.82x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.07
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.00 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 16D 15L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (10W 19D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.14 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (3W 12D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 16D 15L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.27 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Alanyaspor 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 73% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.