Kasımpaşa 1-5 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Trabzonspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 55% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 55% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.184 / defence 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.904 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.339. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Kasımpaşa games / 38 Trabzonspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 4.17. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.97 / Trabzonspor 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.184 / def 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.904 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 5 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 49% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.18x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.90x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (39/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.62
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.32
1.36
Trabzonspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.36 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 9D 16L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 12L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.39 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Kasımpaşa, 72% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Kasımpaşa and 72% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Kasımpaşa's games and 72% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 72% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-5 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.97 xG and Trabzonspor 1.36 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.36 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Trabzonspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 49% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 24%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 55%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.26 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.