Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Samsunspor travel to to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.60 PPG, Samsunspor 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Samsunspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Samsunspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Samsunspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / defence 0.898 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.21 / Samsunspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / def 0.898 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Samsunspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.90) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.63
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
Samsunspor xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.21 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 13D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (14W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 44%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Kasımpaşa) and 56% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Kasımpaşa's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 56% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.