Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Samsunspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 0.70 PPG, Samsunspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Samsunspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Samsunspor trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Samsunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Samsunspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG and Samsunspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.737 / defence 0.956 | Samsunspor attack 1.056 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.289. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Kasımpaşa games / 55 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Samsunspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Kasımpaşa 60% | Samsunspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Kasımpaşa 0.98 / Samsunspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.737 / def 0.956 | Samsunspor attack 1.056 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 24% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.74) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.29
1.30
Samsunspor xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.30 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 21D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.65 PPG from 55 outings (25W 16D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 12D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 21D 20L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 25W 16D 14L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.00 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kasımpaşa) and 52% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 33%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 26% of games; Samsunspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 52% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 52% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kasımpaşa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG and Samsunspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Samsunspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 36% | Samsunspor 40%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.