Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Samsunspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Samsunspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–4 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Samsunspor trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Samsunspor 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 67% | Samsunspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG and Samsunspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.041 / defence 1.270 | Samsunspor attack 0.705 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.238. Data: 69 Kasımpaşa games / 33 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 4.55. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.72 / Samsunspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.041 / def 1.270 | Samsunspor attack 0.705 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Samsunspor xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 50% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.04) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.59
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.11
Samsunspor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
4%
25.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.11 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 7D 13L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.39 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.50 points per game from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.38 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 69%, Samsunspor at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Kasımpaşa) and 38% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 62% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 38% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG and Samsunspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Samsunspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 50% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 22%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 67%, Samsunspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Samsunspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG, Samsunspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.