Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Kasımpaşa — this Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rizespor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 0.70 PPG, Rizespor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kasımpaşa's games and 90% of Rizespor's (from Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Kasımpaşa hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Rizespor and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Kasımpaşa 2–1 Rizespor — a Kasımpaşa win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Kasımpaşa and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 64% and Rizespor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Rizespor 56%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Kasımpaşa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG and Rizespor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.798 / defence 1.070 | Rizespor attack 1.102 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.253. Kasımpaşa's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 59 games and Rizespor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 39%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.47 | Draw 3.06 | Rizespor 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.26 / Rizespor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.798 / def 1.070 | Rizespor attack 1.102 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Rizespor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 3 Rizespor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 29% chance of winning, Rizespor a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 59 games and Rizespor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
29%
3.47
33%
3.06
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.74
1.48
Rizespor xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.48 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 22D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.24 PPG from 59 outings (20W 13D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.14 PPG, Rizespor on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 12D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 22D 22L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Rizespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.03 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 69%, Rizespor at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kasımpaşa) and 62% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 28% of games; Rizespor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 66% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 79% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kasımpaşa 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG and Rizespor 1.48 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rizespor outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 39%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.14 PPG, Rizespor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.