Kasımpaşa 2-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Rizespor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Rizespor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Rizespor in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Rizespor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 69% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Rizespor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.31 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.252 / defence 1.362 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Kasımpaşa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Kasımpaşa games / 16 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Rizespor 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.31 / Rizespor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.252 / def 1.362 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Rizespor xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 December 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 59% chance of winning, Rizespor a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.77
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.64
1.33
Rizespor xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
10%
10.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
2%
49.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.33 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 4D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.38 PPG, Rizespor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Rizespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.62 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Rizespor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 88%, Rizespor at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Kasımpaşa and 62% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Kasımpaşa's games and 62% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Rizespor finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.31 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.25 / defence 1.36 against Rizespor attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 20%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Rizespor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Rizespor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.