Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Kasımpaşa welcome Çorum FK to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Çorum FK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Çorum FK's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Çorum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Çorum FK in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 70% and Çorum FK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 50% | Çorum FK 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.99 xG and Çorum FK 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Kasımpaşa games / 10 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 22% | Çorum FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Çorum FK 3.12. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Çorum FK 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 22% | Çorum FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.99 / Çorum FK 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Çorum FK xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 46% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Çorum FK 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Çorum FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
46%
2.15
22%
4.64
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.61
1.63
Çorum FK xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
4%
22.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.63 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 5D 1L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Çorum FK sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.70 PPG, Çorum FK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 4D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Çorum FK have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Çorum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Çorum FK in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Çorum FK away?
Çorum FK's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
0
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Çorum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 80%, Çorum FK at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kasımpaşa and 80% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Çorum FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kasımpaşa's games and 60% of Çorum FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 80% of Çorum FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.