Kasımpaşa 2-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Kasımpaşa have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Konyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Konyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Konyaspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 66% versus Konyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 66% | Konyaspor 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.59 xG and Konyaspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / defence 1.033 | Konyaspor attack 0.943 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.263. Data: 38 Kasımpaşa games / 38 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.57. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Kasımpaşa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Konyaspor 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.59 / Konyaspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / def 1.033 | Konyaspor attack 0.943 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Konyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.02x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.69
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.23
Konyaspor xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.23 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. Kasımpaşa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (9W 14D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. Konyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (3W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Pre-Season
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.63 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Konyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Kasımpaşa) and 37% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 53% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 37% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.59 xG and Konyaspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Konyaspor 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.