Kasımpaşa 0-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Konyaspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Konyaspor trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 61% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 64% | Konyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.143 / defence 1.279 | Konyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.198. Data: 67 Kasımpaşa games / 67 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.85. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.74 / Konyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.143 / def 1.279 | Konyaspor attack 0.816 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.76
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.99
1.25
Konyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.25 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 14D 28L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 67 outings (19W 27D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 7D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.24 points per game from 33 outings (9W 14D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 19W 27D 21L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.39 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kasımpaşa and 54% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 54% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 54% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.14 / defence 1.28 against Konyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Konyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.