Kasımpaşa 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Hatayspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 2D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 0.80 PPG, Hatayspor 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Hatayspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Hatayspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 62% | Hatayspor 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.66 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.133 / defence 1.512 | Hatayspor attack 0.693 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.235. Data: 56 Kasımpaşa games / 56 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Hatayspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Hatayspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.66 / Hatayspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.133 / def 1.512 | Hatayspor attack 0.693 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hatayspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 44% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.13x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.61
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.95
1.29
Hatayspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.29 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 19W 12D 25L from 56 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 32L across 56 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 11W 5D 12L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 20L across 28 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.80 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 14D 32L in their last 56 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Hatayspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.36 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Hatayspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Hatayspor 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Kasımpaşa and 64% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 29% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 64% of Hatayspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.66 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.13 / defence 1.51 against Hatayspor attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Hatayspor 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.