Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kasımpaşa face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Galatasaray travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Galatasaray — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Galatasaray's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Galatasaray's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kasımpaşa's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Galatasaray have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Kasımpaşa.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Galatasaray winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Galatasaray in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 62% and Galatasaray 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 56% | Galatasaray 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Galatasaray 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.768 / defence 0.990 | Galatasaray attack 1.292 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Kasımpaşa games / 69 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 26% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 41%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Galatasaray 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galatasaray offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 30% | Galatasaray 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 26% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.13 / Galatasaray 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.768 / def 0.990 | Galatasaray attack 1.292 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Galatasaray xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 26% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray?
Record (9 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 3 | Galatasaray 5W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Galatasaray's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
26%
3.78
32%
3.09
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.57
1.44
Galatasaray xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.44 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 69 games, going 18W 25D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Galatasaray sit at 2.49 PPG from 69 outings (54W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Galatasaray carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 13D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Galatasaray have taken 2.38 points per game from 34 outings (26W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.41 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 25D 26L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 54W 10D 5L in their last 69 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.18 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2025, when Galatasaray won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
5
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Galatasaray have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 62%, Galatasaray 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kasımpaşa) and 65% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 35%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kasımpaşa's games and 59% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 65% of Galatasaray's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Galatasaray 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Galatasaray 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Galatasaray 1.44 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galatasaray landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Galatasaray attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 26% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 41%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 56%, Galatasaray 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Galatasaray's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.