Kasımpaşa 0-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Bodrum FK at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bodrum FK — All Games: 3W 0D 4L from 7 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.29 (Bodrum FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Bodrum FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 43% | Bodrum FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.45 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / defence 1.051 | Bodrum FK attack 0.720 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.312. Data: 45 Kasımpaşa games / 7 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Bodrum FK 4.00. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Bodrum FK 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.45 / Bodrum FK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / def 1.051 | Bodrum FK attack 0.720 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.83) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.54
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.44
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.99 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 4D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bodrum FK sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodrum FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Bodrum FK away?
Bodrum FK's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.67 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Bodrum FK 1-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kasımpaşa 33% BTTS, Bodrum FK 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kasımpaşa and 33% for Bodrum FK.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 33%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 67% of games; Bodrum FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 33% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 33% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, as Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.45 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Bodrum FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 43%, Bodrum FK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.