Kasımpaşa 0-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Başakşehir — this Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 16). Kick-off: Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Başakşehir's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Kasımpaşa, 1.30 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Başakşehir, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 1–3 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Başakşehir have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Başakşehir 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 61% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.75 xG and Başakşehir 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.247 / defence 1.394 | Başakşehir attack 0.777 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.248. Başakşehir's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 54 games and Başakşehir's last 54.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.19 | Draw 3.87 | Başakşehir 3.50. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 90% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 16 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.75 / Başakşehir 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.247 / def 1.394 | Başakşehir attack 0.777 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Başakşehir xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 16) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 46% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.78x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 54 games and Başakşehir's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.87
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.10
1.35
Başakşehir xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.35 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 12D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (23W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.52 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.41 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 74%, Başakşehir 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kasımpaşa) and 33% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Kasımpaşa's games and 41% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 33% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 63% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.75 xG and Başakşehir 1.35 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.25 / defence 1.39 against Başakşehir attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 61%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG, Başakşehir 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.