Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.10 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Antalyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Antalyaspor and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 65% and Antalyaspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 63% | Antalyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.12 xG and Antalyaspor 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.999 / defence 1.194 | Antalyaspor attack 1.082 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.277. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Kasımpaşa games / 43 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Antalyaspor 3.33. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.12 / Antalyaspor 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.999 / def 1.194 | Antalyaspor attack 1.082 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Antalyaspor xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 48% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.00) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.56
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.78
1.65
Antalyaspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
4%
28.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.65 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 17W 10D 16L from 43 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 15L across 43 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.42 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Antalyaspor in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 14D 15L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.38 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 67%, Antalyaspor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kasımpaşa and 57% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 67% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 57% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.12 xG and Antalyaspor 1.65 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.47, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 30%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 63%, Antalyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.