Kasımpaşa vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Amed travel to to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.60 PPG versus Amed's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
Amed trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 67% versus Amed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kasımpaşa 0% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.59 xG and Amed 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / defence 0.898 | Amed attack 0.716 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 25% | Amed 18%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Amed 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Amed 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 25% | Amed 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.59 / Amed 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.898 / def 0.898 | Amed attack 0.716 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Amed xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Amed kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Amed part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Amed is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 57% chance of winning, Amed a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Amed in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.90x the league average against Amed's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.99
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.38
0.78
Amed xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
26.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.78 for Amed, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.67 PPG, Amed on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Amed in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kasımpaşa or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Amed 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Kasımpaşa and 67% for Amed.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed in 33%; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Amed tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.