Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Kasımpaşa — this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alanyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 8D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Kasımpaşa, 1.10 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Alanyaspor managing 1 and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Kasımpaşa 2–1 Alanyaspor — a Kasımpaşa win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Kasımpaşa and goals — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 63% and Alanyaspor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 57% | Alanyaspor 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kasımpaşa surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Kasımpaşa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.808 / defence 1.023 | Alanyaspor attack 1.003 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.209. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 65.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.19 | Draw 2.94 | Alanyaspor 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 30% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.17 / Alanyaspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.808 / def 1.023 | Alanyaspor attack 1.003 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Alanyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 31% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.00x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.94
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Alanyaspor xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.24 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 65 games, going 17W 24D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.20 PPG from 65 outings (18W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.20 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 12D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 32 away games (5W 14D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 24D 24L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 24D 23L in their last 65 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.12 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won Kasımpaşa 4-1 Alanyaspor on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 62%, Alanyaspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kasımpaşa's games and 66% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 47% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 75% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.15 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.