Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Kasımpaşa, 1.10 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kasımpaşa and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 63% and Alanyaspor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 57% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.808 / defence 1.023 | Alanyaspor attack 1.003 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.209. Data: 65 Kasımpaşa games / 65 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Alanyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.17 / Alanyaspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.808 / def 1.023 | Alanyaspor attack 1.003 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Alanyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 31% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Kasımpaşa 6W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.00x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.94
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Alanyaspor xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.24 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 65 games, going 17W 24D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.20 PPG from 65 outings (18W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.20 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 12D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (5W 14D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 24D 24L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 24D 23L in their last 65 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.12 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 62%, Alanyaspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kasımpaşa's games and 66% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 47% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 31% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.15 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.