Kasımpaşa 2-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 3 as Kasımpaşa welcome Adana Demirspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 68% and Adana Demirspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Adana Demirspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.053 / defence 1.191 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.862 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.267. Data: 40 Kasımpaşa games / 40 Adana Demirspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 40% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 40% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.48 / Adana Demirspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.053 / def 1.191 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.862 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Adana Demirspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 40% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.05) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.56
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Adana Demirspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.30 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 9D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (10W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.42 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (1W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 9D 15L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.55 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 70%, Adana Demirspor at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Kasımpaşa) and 45% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 65% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 45% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 40% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 32%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Adana Demirspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.