Hatayspor 0-3 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
İstanbulspor travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hatayspor at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, İstanbulspor have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hatayspor have won 1, İstanbulspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Hatayspor 1–2 İstanbulspor — a İstanbulspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 61% | İstanbulspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.61 xG and İstanbulspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.016 / defence 1.007 | İstanbulspor attack 0.804 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.208. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 67 games and İstanbulspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.00 | Draw 3.44 | İstanbulspor 4.79. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 70% (last 10 home games) | İstanbulspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hatayspor 1.61 / İstanbulspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.016 / def 1.007 | İstanbulspor attack 0.804 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
İstanbulspor xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 İstanbulspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 50% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hatayspor and İstanbulspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 67 games and İstanbulspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.44
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.98
İstanbulspor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
24.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.98 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 13W 17D 37L from 67 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
İstanbulspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 40L across 67 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.84 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 9W 11D 13L from their last 33 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
İstanbulspor's away record stands at 7W 6D 20L across their last 33 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.04 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs İstanbulspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Current Season
İstanbulspor
Current Season
❓ Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 37L in their last 67 games (0.84 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 15W 12D 40L in their last 67 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.15 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
İstanbulspor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 May 2023, when İstanbulspor won Hatayspor 0-3 İstanbulspor.
Hatayspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
3
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and İstanbulspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 1, İstanbulspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2024: Hatayspor 0-3 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and İstanbulspor?
İstanbulspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 52%, İstanbulspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hatayspor) and 52% (İstanbulspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 39% of games; İstanbulspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs İstanbulspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and İstanbulspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 46% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and İstanbulspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hatayspor's matches and 52% of İstanbulspor's.
Do Hatayspor and İstanbulspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 74% of İstanbulspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant İstanbulspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.61 xG and İstanbulspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. İstanbulspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against İstanbulspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 50% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 21%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a İstanbulspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 61%, İstanbulspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.84 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the İstanbulspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.