Hatayspor 3-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hatayspor welcome Trabzonspor to Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 6). Kick-off is Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hatayspor have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hatayspor at home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hatayspor have won 1, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Hatayspor 2–1 Trabzonspor — a Hatayspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 30% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 72% | Trabzonspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.855 / defence 1.225 | Trabzonspor attack 1.211 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.302. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.211, which lifts their away xG to 1.93. Hatayspor's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 41 games and Trabzonspor's last 40.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 23% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 49%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 4.34 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 2.05. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 10% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 23% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Hatayspor 1.31 / Trabzonspor 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.855 / def 1.225 | Trabzonspor attack 1.211 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 25 September 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 23% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hatayspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.85) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 41 games and Trabzonspor's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
23%
4.34
28%
3.57
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.25
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
14%
6.90
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
3%
29.94
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.93 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 7W 9D 24L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 19W 6D 15L from 40 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 0.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 12L from their last 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 7W 9D 24L in their last 40 games (0.75 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 19W 6D 15L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 0.95 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hatayspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 32%, Trabzonspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hatayspor and 74% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 74% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hatayspor's matches and 74% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 90% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Trabzonspor 3-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.93 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Trabzonspor attack 1.21 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 23% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 49%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 72%, Trabzonspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.