Hatayspor 0-3 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 58% versus Samsunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.34 xG and Samsunspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.960 / defence 0.967 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.295. Data: 41 Hatayspor games / 40 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Samsunspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Samsunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Hatayspor 1.34 / Samsunspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.960 / def 0.967 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Samsunspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatayspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Samsunspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.96) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.85x) against Hatayspor's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.23
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.40
1.06
Samsunspor xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.06 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 8W 15D 17L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor's form line: 12W 10D 18L from 40 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.15 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 2W 5D 13L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Samsunspor 2-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 70%, Samsunspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hatayspor) and 40% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hatayspor's games and 55% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hatayspor's recent games and 40% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.34 xG and Samsunspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Samsunspor outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.98 PPG, Samsunspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.