Hatayspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mersin Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hatayspor 1.10 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 0–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 56% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 51% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.994 / defence 0.987 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.994 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.283. Data: 39 Hatayspor games / 39 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Hatayspor 1.50 / Kasımpaşa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.994 / def 0.987 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.994 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (6 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.57
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.26 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 9W 14D 16L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 15L across 39 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.05 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.64 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 8D 15L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.47 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hatayspor at 68%, Kasımpaşa at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Hatayspor and 63% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hatayspor's games and 63% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hatayspor's matches and 63% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 51%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.05 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.