Hatayspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41%, yet in-form Gaziantep FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 10 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gaziantep FK arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Gaziantep FK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 1–4 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 40% versus Gaziantep FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 72% | Gaziantep FK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.79 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.164 / defence 1.210 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.041 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.286. Data: 54 Hatayspor games / 53 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Gaziantep FK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Hatayspor 1.79 / Gaziantep FK 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.164 / def 1.210 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.041 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Gaziantep FK xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 10 January 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Hatayspor 0 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (4 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.16) and Gaziantep FK's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.04x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.06
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.41
1.62
Gaziantep FK xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.62 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 10W 12D 31L from 53 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 32L across 53 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.85 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 7W 7D 12L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 6W 2D 18L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 12D 31L in their last 53 games (0.79 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 12W 9D 32L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.08 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Hatayspor and 62% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 42% of games; Gaziantep FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 35% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Hatayspor's matches and 62% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hatayspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, as Hatayspor and Gaziantep FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.79 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.62 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.21 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 34%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 72%, Gaziantep FK 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.79 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.