Hatayspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hatayspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 40% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 64% | Fenerbahçe 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.95 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.986 / defence 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.572 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.173. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.572 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Hatayspor games / 63 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 90% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Hatayspor 0.95 / Fenerbahçe 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.986 / def 1.083 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.572 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Hatayspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 15% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 5W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.57x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
15%
6.83
26%
3.83
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.94
2.00
Fenerbahçe xG
6.83
15%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
2%
50.32
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hatayspor and 2.00 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 63 games, going 12W 16D 35L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.38 PPG from 63 outings (47W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 8W 11D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.45 points per game from 31 outings (24W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 12W 16D 35L in their last 63 games (0.83 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 47W 9D 7L in their last 63 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.13 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 55%, Fenerbahçe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hatayspor and 58% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 42%; Hatayspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 48% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hatayspor's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 0-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.95 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.00 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.57 / defence 0.66, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 15% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 59%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 64%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.