Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hatayspor face Fatih Karagümrük.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Hatayspor have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Hatayspor have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hatayspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Hatayspor 0–0 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 66% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hatayspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.895 / defence 1.093 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.697 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.203. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 59 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 59.

Result probabilities: Hatayspor 47% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.14 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.49. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights