Hatayspor 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hatayspor face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hatayspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hatayspor at 1.00 PPG versus Eyüpspor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Eyüpspor's (from Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Hatayspor 0–2 Eyüpspor — a Eyüpspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Eyüpspor trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 61% and Eyüpspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Eyüpspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.40 xG and Eyüpspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.195 | Eyüpspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.207. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 65 games and Eyüpspor's last 28.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.61 | Draw 3.80 | Eyüpspor 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hatayspor 1.40 / Eyüpspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.900 / def 1.195 | Eyüpspor attack 0.927 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 38% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hatayspor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 65 games and Eyüpspor's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.80
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.34 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 7D 16L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hatayspor's home form reads 3W 5D 6L across their last 14 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 14 away games (4W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.46 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 61%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2025: Hatayspor 0-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hatayspor at 71%, Eyüpspor at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hatayspor) and 43% (Eyüpspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hatayspor's games and 64% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hatayspor's recent games and 43% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 57% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Hatayspor 0-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.40 xG and Eyüpspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Eyüpspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.